NFL Vegas Odds: Perfect Green Bay Packers Face Anxious NY Giants

Sunday, December 04, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Aaron Rodgers - NFL Vegas Odds: Perfect Green Bay Packers Face Anxious NY Giants

Analysis:
Make no mistake. New York Giants past and present are familiar with the scenario.

A matchup with an elite-level opponent aiming for perfection as a decided perception as a no-chance underdog.

And in two memorable cases this generation, they've been equal to the task -- defeating said perfect foe each time on the way to admittedly polar opposite end points of their own.

In Week 15 of 1998, the Giants hosted and beat a 13-0 Denver Broncos squad on the way to finishing 8-8 and missing the NFC Playoffs. The Broncos, meanwhile, went on to capture the Super Bowl anyway in what wound up being John Elways final season.

And in Super Bowl XLII to conclude the 2007 season, New York encountered an 18-0 New England Patriots team on the verge of joining the 1972 Miami Dolphins as the only perfect world champions in NFL history -- and instead claimed the glory for itself with a stunning 17-14 win.

So when the 11-0 Green Bay Packers arrive Sunday at MetLife Stadium for their Week 13 showdown, Big Blue will know what's at stake.

The question still remains, however: Do they have enough of anything needed to slay this unblemished dragon?

Led by Aaron Rodgers' 33 touchdown passes against just four interceptions, Green Bay is five games from a perfect regular season and already installed as a heavy favorite to repeat last season's Super Bowl win. A victory on Sunday, in fact, could clinch the NFC North with four games remaining.

The Packers have won 17 straight contests dating back to last season, four shy of the playoff-inclusive mark set by the Patriots between 2003-04.

Green Bay's streak began with a 45-17 home rout of the Giants in the next-to- last week of the 2010 regular season. New York would have clinched a playoff spot and eliminated Green Bay with a victory.

Instead, the Giants missed the playoffs for a second straight year and seem to be traveling a similar path in 2011. They have lost three straight and have a short week after allowing 577 yards -- the second-most in franchise history -- in Monday's 49-24 loss at New Orleans.

Now 6-5, New York is a game behind Dallas in the NFC East.

The high-intensity pass rush that dogged Tom Brady in the aforementioned title win could be hampered against Rodgers and Co. this week, with two-time Pro Bowl defensive end Osi Umenyiora expected to miss the game -- and maybe several more -- with a severe ankle sprain.

Rodgers threw for 404 yards and four scores in last season's defeat of New York.

On their side, the Giants own the NFL's worst rushing attack in yards per game (82.3) and yards per carry (3.2), but could get help if running back Ahmad Bradshaw returns after missing four games with a broken bone in his right foot. New York hasn't scored a first-half touchdown since Bradshaw went down.

Green Bay took a 26-21-2 lead in a regular-season series with the Giants that dates back to 1928 with last year's previously-mentioned pasting and has won two straight and five of the past six non-playoff meetings between the storied franchises.

The Packers have also come out on top in three straight tests as the visitor in this set, claiming victories at Giants Stadium in both 1998 and 2001 in addition to a 35-13 triumph in 2007. New York last topped the Packers in the regular season via a 14-7 verdict at Lambeau Field in 2004, and its last home win over Green Bay occurred on Nov. 8, 1992, a 27-7 decision.

These two teams have also squared off a total of six times during postseason play, with the most recent clash taking place in the 2007 NFC Championship. The Giants won that game in overtime by a 23-20 count at Lambeau Field in what turned out to be Brett Favre's final appearance as a Packer.

Tom Coughlin is 2-4 against the Packers during his head coaching career, including an 0-2 mark while with Jacksonville from 1995 to 2002. Mike McCarthy is 2-1 against both Coughlin and the Giants over his six-year tenure with the Pack, with the lone defeat coming in the above-noted 2007 NFC Championship.

Time & Venue:
- 4:15 PM ET, Sunday, December 4, 2011. MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Last Week's results:
- Green Bay Packers (-6) beats host Detroit Lions 27-15.
- New York Giants (+7) lost to host New Orleans Saints 49-24

Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Green Bay Packers (11-0) wins and covers
- Underdog New York Giants (6-5) loses and does not cover.

NFL Football Odds: Packers -7, O/U 54

Next up:
- Green Bay home to Oakland Raiders, Sunday, December 11
- New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, December 11

The Packers improved to 11-0 for the first time in team history with a 27-15 victory over Detroit on Thanksgiving. They have won 17 straight, beginning with the win over the Giants. Rodgers (3,475 yards, 33 TDs, 4 INTs) threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions and has now posted a quarterback rating of over 110 in an NFL-record 11 straight games.

WR Jordy Nelson leads the team with nine touchdowns while Greg Jennings is tops in receptions (58) and yards (835). The one area that has been a problem is pass protection (27 sacks, fifth most in NFL), and Rodgers will likely be without LT Kyle Clifton (back) and RG Josh Sitton (knee). Meanwhile, the defense continues to bend (30th, 393.4 ypg) but not break. Green Bay has a NFL-high 22 interceptions and the second-most takeaways in the league with 25.


The Giants’ recent lack of a pass rush is a huge concern. New York is sixth in the league with 31 sacks, but it has just five in the last four games after failing to reach Drew Brees in an embarrassing 49-24 loss to New Orleans on Monday night. The Giants are ranked 27th in scoring defense (25.2 ppg). Eli Manning (3,358 yards, 21 TDs, 10 INTs), who completed 21 straight passes in Monday’s loss, is having his best season. The problem is the rushing attack has dropped to last in the league (82.3 ypg) without RB Ahmad Bradshaw (broken foot), who has missed the last four games.

Whether Bradshaw will play, or is healthy enough to fully contribute, will go a long way to determining if the Giants can attempt to control the flow with a consistent ground game against an iffy run defense.

On the other side, going without Umenyiora deals a significant blow to the sort of disrupt-the-passer scheme that served New York so well in the Super Bowl with Brady and his prolific offense. The Giants have to apply steady pressure on Rodgers if they're to accomplish the difficult task of getting him out of rhythm.

At some point, it usually gets difficult for a team to maintain momentum. Although not probable, it could be a challenge for the Packers to re-ignite after an extended post-Thanksgiving break.

The Giants have experience against undefeated teams and red-hot quarterbacks, having knocked off Tom Brady and the 18-0 New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.

The Packers' last loss came the week before their victory over the Giants, when Rodgers was sidelined with a concussion and Matt Flynn guided the team in a 31-27 defeat at New England.

"We won't shy away from the (undefeated) talk if we get to that, but it's a hypothetical situation. We're focused on winning our division right now." – Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy.

NY Giants are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home
NY Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Green Bay's last 17 games on the road

Yes, the Giants have been doubted in spots similar to this. And yes, they've at least two times delivered an upset against a previously unblemished team. But it doesn't seem the same this time. Though they'll be the home team and surely amped up, this New York squad is suffering from too many injuries and too much defensive upheaval to be counted on to stop the league's best team. Unless Rodgers has an uncharacteristic bad day and/or the weather makes an impact, it looks like a dozen wins in a row for Green Bay this season.

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NFL Football Pick: Take Packers.

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aaron rodgers - ahmad bradshaw - dallas cowboys - detroit lions - drew brees - eli manning - green bay packers - greg jennings - jordy nelson - josh sitton

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